‘Gold’s Decade-Long Bull Run is Dead(?)’
GoldSeek
...says Gartman. From Forbes entry in the 'Running of the Goldbugs, 2012' sweepstakes:
Bernanke delivered the fatal blow to gold’s ten year bull market, according to Dennis Gartman. Gold has been in bear territory since the summer of 2011, when it topped out above $1,900 an ounce, with the latest post-FOMC sell-off inflicting irreparable technical damage, he says.
Well close Dennis. But let's fine tune a little: Unbridled panic-fueled momentum drove gold unsustainably higher as it took a mini blow off and very predictable correction. Gold is not broken in its secular bull market (and not necessarily even the cyclical one out of 2008) by any rational technical parameters. Not as of this writing and thus, not as of your little Forbes piece with the alarmist headline. 'Irreparable technical damage' Dennis? Where?
Technical damage could come about but here's the thing, it has not yet come about. Why the haste to make such a call good sir? And you Forbes; why pile on now when everyone from Buffett to Bernanke himself is mowing down the poor, under-armed gold bugs? If gold is so marginalized, why the big and seemingly coordinated negative ad campaign?
The time to have negative feelings was late last summer. The time to think like a capitalist is now.
UBS’ Edel Tully adds that markets’ no-QE-for-now realization will push gold even lower, probably down to $1,550 an ounce over the next month.
Oh my... all the way down to 1550? While that's a little under my initial support parameter, it does not break the bull market. Next...
Over the last couple of years, gold’s precipitous, and continued, rise fueled causal theories, with some investors attributing it to U.S. dollar weakness, others to a safe haven trade in the face of widespread market turmoil, an inflation hedge, or whatever they could correlate a chart with. The yellow metal, though, appears as a Humean experiment in causality, marrying no single trend.
What the #$%! are you talking about you egghead? Okay, so you razzle dazzled us with a reference to David Hume. Dial your head out of the clouds and down here to ground zero of the battle between honest systems and corrupt, media perverted ones. David Hume, are you kidding me?
Gold has fallen nearly 9% since late February, trading at $1,628.5 an ounce on Thursday in New York. Gold went on a rollercoaster ride over the last 12 months, rising to an all-time high above $1,900 last spring, then tanking about 18% to December, then rising a further 15.5% to this February.
Gold is up over 350% since I became involved in its market. Casino patrons can have thrills on the amusement park rides of 18% and 15.5%.
According to Gartman, gold’s latest price action confirms the trend line has clearly been broken, indicating we’ve been in a bear market for 12 months, since it peaked. In Thursday’s Gartman Letter, “in retrospect it does appear that gold has not been in a bull market but has indeed been in a bear market” since August 2011, when it peaked above $1,900. “Since then,” he added “each new interim low has been lower and each new interim high has followed. How, we ask, had we missed that fact!”
I agree with you Dennis. But you need to define 'trend'. Is it a trend that ends the secular bull market or just a trend that defines a mini cyclical bear or as I would call it still, a downward consolidation of the unsustainable momo into the euro blow off? You know that in the hands of the mainstream financial media the definition is simply going to be "bear market" without any care about time frames and sub-definitions of bear or bull markets like cyclical, secular, etc.
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Dennis Gartman: Selling Gold Wrong and Ill-Advised
CNBC
Trading gold over the past month has not been for the faint of heart. The precious metal has been all over the map.
Considering the treacherous environment, for insights we turned to one of the best gold traders we know, esteemed commodities trader Dennis Gartman..
And he tells us he was dismayed by the sell-off earlier in the week, “it was wrong and ill-advised,” he says.
Gartman also tells us he thinks the weakness may be related to end of quarter maneuvering.
“I think some of the sell-off may have been due to liquidation by investors who own gold in terms of yen; the yen got stronger into the end of the quarter.”
But when the new quarter begins Gartman thinks long-term dynamics will come back into play for gold. “The major trend remains in gold’s favor,” he says. And that trend remains from the lower left to the upper right.
In fact, Gartman adds, "I'm very impressed by the manner in which gold has responded (Friday). Gold has begun to quietly work its way higher. That's impressive. (Long-term) I like gold,” he says. “The sell-off has run its course."
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I’m Back Into Gold: Dennis Gartman
CNBC
Dennis Gartman got out of gold last week, but he's back thanks to an inadvertent push by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
"I was wrong in standing aside," said the publisher of The Gartman Letter. "Fortunately I didn’t stand aside on much. I got scared. The pros get more frightened than amateurs in this business, and the first rule is to keep your powder dry."
Gartman is a little unusual in that he owns gold in yen rather than in dollars, and last week he "thought the yen was going to weaken dramatically," which helped push him out of gold.
Then Bernanke spoke to the National Association of Business Economics before the market opened Monday and said that with a continuing weak labor market, the Fed could do morequantitative easing if necessary.
"Sometimes you get lucky" and "Dr. Bernanke got me a little lucky this morning," said Gartman. He said he "got lucky" with Bernanke's easing comments, indicating possibly another round, which would be QE3, is back on the table.
"If you'd ask people last week you’d think QE3 was off the table and broken on the floor," Gartman said. The thought of QE3 helped send gold higher.
But even before Bernanke spoke Gartman said "it was apparent to me the trend was still up" for gold. But he's not setting any targets.
"I’m old enough in this business to understand that making targets usually makes you look rather foolish," he said.
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Dennis Gartman: Gold Likely to Outperform Stocks
CNBC
A stock market rally on U.S. employment growth wasn’t enough to move noted commodities trader Dennis Gartman back into equities — or away from gold.
“I’m comfortable sitting on the sidelines,” he said on “Fast Money.”
Gold hit a high of $1,714.90 per ounce midday after dropping to $1,670 in earlier trading.
The editor and publisher of the widely followed Gartman Letter said he remained positive on gold — “violently bullish in yen terms; I’m avoiding it in dollar terms” — and was “dead-solid neutral” on equities.
That position appeared solid, especially as the Indian rupee weakened and may have spurred buyers at the bottom.
“If you owned gold in yen terms, you never even get spooked,” he said, adding that a $10 drop earlier in the day did not cause him any worry. “It’s simply a better trade.”
The Labor Department employment report — showing a net gain of 227,000 new private-sector jobs — could bode well for equities.
“Let’s be blunt. Today’s number was really quite a good number, and I don’t think enough people are paying attention to how important the revisions are,” he said. “I always say that the direction of revision in most economic data is as important as the data itself, and the revisions have consistently been for the better.”
Gartman said the jobs report clearly showed employment was improving in the United States.
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Greek Bailout Talks Near Point Of No Return, Gartman Offloads Gold
Forbes
Greek politics have once again taken center stage as the Troika (ECB, IMF, and EU Commission) try to force Greece to accept stricter austerity measures in order to receive a crucial second bail-out that will allow the country to avoid default. Some, like Dennis Gartman, have expressed their skepticism and still believe Greece will have to default and exit the Eurozone.
German-imposed austerity versus Greek political resistance. That’s the crucial struggle, the fateful face-off global markets are being forced to watch closely. The latest set of negotiations have, once again, very quickly approached the point of no return.
After weeks of excruciating negotiations, Greek leaders appear to have reached an agreement with creditors over the so-called private sector involvement (PSI) as part of their plan to restructure their debt. While the actual terms haven’t been disclosed (private sector creditors are expected to take a 70% haircut), the negotiations have now focused back on structural reforms.
Research by Barclays suggests the PSI has “technically been agreed [on],” but it won’t “go ahead until the government has guaranteed the requested reforms.” The Greek government, headed by technocrat Lucas Papademos has already agreed to extend spending cuts to account for about 1.5% of GDP, or something like €3 billion ($3.94 billion). But troika appears to have demanded that the country further cuts the minimum wage (by about 15% to 20%), lay off additional public sector employees (about 150,000 according to Barclays), and end banking bonuses, among other things. Update: The Greek government appears to have accepted to trim about 15,000 workers as they work toward a final agreement, according to Trade the News. It was also reported that Greece is committed to its plan to cut at least 150,000 public sector jobs by the end of 2015.
The discussion has turned purely political, at this point. Opposition leader Antonis Samaras has expressed concern as to how much austerity Greece can take. But the country needs to roll over €2 billion ($2.63 billion) in debt this month and a troubling €14.5 billion ($19 billion) by March 20, making that day the de facto deadline for an agreement.
In other words, the risk of a Greek sovereign debt default is quite high. While ECB action has lowered the risk of a credit crunch and diminished the possibility of contagion, via the LTRO lending facility, a disorderly default could easily counteract many of Mario Draghi’s containment policies.
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Gold Goes Off Charts as Gartman Sees Prices for Metal Heading ‘Parabolic’
Bloomberg
Gold’s rally to a record above $1,900 an ounce has pushed the metal to overbought levels according to technical analysis tools, as economist Dennis Gartman said prices will go “parabolic.”
Bullion’s relative strength index has topped 70 since Aug. 5, a signal to some investors who study technical charts that prices may be set to decline. Gold hugged its upper Bollinger band most of this month, which may signal possible resistance, while a moving average convergence/divergence indicator and Elliot Wave patterns suggest prices are overextended, said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of London bullion brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd.
Gold futures climbed as high as $1,904 an ounce in New York today and is up 16 percent in August, set for the best monthly gain since 1999. The metal has advanced as concern about debt crises and slower economic growth spurred investors to diversify holdings away from equities and some currencies. The biggest gold-backed exchange-traded product surpassed its equities counterpart as the largest by market value, while bullion rose to record prices in euros, British pounds and Swiss francs.
Set to Drop?
“I think we’re overextended in the short term,” Axel Rudolph, a technical strategist at Commerzbank AG in London, said by phone. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we were to fail around $1,900 to $1,922 and retrace a little bit for a few days or so. It’s still very bullish longer term. Longer term, I think $2,000 will definitely be hit.”
Prices may slip to the Aug. 11 high of about $1,815 if gold stays below $1,925, which is near a 60-minute point-and-figure target, Rudolph said. The metal may move “sideways to up” if no decline takes place in the next couple of days, he said.
Still, a weekly close above $1,900 may push prices to the “psychological” level of $2,000, near the 200 percent extension of the rally from January’s low to May’s high projected from the May low, one of the levels singled out in so- called Fibonacci analysis, he said. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices tend to drop or climb by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
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Dennis Gartman: Gold Could Reach $1650 by Year’s End
CNBC
With the Fast Traders saying the path of least resistance in the stock market is probably lower, you may be looking for a trade that could go higher. And strategic investor Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter, thinks the trade is long gold. He told the “Fast Money” team that he thinks gold [GCCV1 1523.50 
-0.90 (-0.06%) 
] could go more than $100 to the upside and hit $1650 by the end of the year.
However, if you watch “Fast Money” regularly, you know that Gartman prefers to play gold in terms of currencies other than the U.S. dollar. “I’ve been an advocate of owning gold,” he said, but not in terms of the U.S. dollar.
Gartman likes owning gold in terms of euro, sterling and yen. If you want to position like Gartman - long of gold in euro terms - then as an America investor, you would go long of gold, short the euro.
As for the overall market condition, he believes stocks will continue to slide.
“I’m not sure that we’re going to have a global recession,” he said, “but clearly we’re having a material slowdown in economic activity.”
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Gold Up as Libya’s Cease-Fire Fails to Calm Waters
Reuters
Frank Tang and Rebekah Curtis
Gold rose for a third straight day on Friday after a unilateral ceasefire declared by Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi failed to calm investor nerves as political tensions heightened across the Arab world.
Bullion also benefited from a weaker dollar as traders braced for more official action after the G7 nations coordinated to intervene into the yen, and as fresh political unrest was reported in Yemen, Syria, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
"It's the concern about what would happen in Libya. Will Gaddafi really stick up to the ceasefire? That's probably the only reason why gold's being bid up at all," said Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter, a daily investment newsletter.
Gartman, however, said that recent weaker volume suggested gold could lack the conviction to rise further, and the metal's gains on Friday were largely driven by a dollar drop.
Gold rose 1 percent to $1,418.70 an ounce by 12:35 p.m. EDT
Earlier in the session, the metal was little changed after China's central bank raised lenders' required reserves by 50 basis points, a move viewed by some as a confirmation of gold's inflation-hedge appeal.
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What is Gold Telling Us?
MarketWatch
Peter Brimelow
Gold reaches a record high. Is it telling us something?
Gold closed $1437.70 on Wednesday, using the CME April contract as the measure, up $28.40 so far this week and breaking through significant technical barriers.
Over the weekend, Australia’s The Privateer had growled: “Just as it has since early November 2010, the area between $1,400 and $1,425 is proving a firm ‘ceiling’ for gold.”
The Gartman Letter was more direct on Tuesday: “Someone … or something … has kept a virtual lid on the gold market at or near $1,414-$1,416 for the past many months and has certainly been at work for the past two weeks making certain that gold does not push upward through that level.”
Consequently the new, adjusted gold chart looks very exciting. Pring Research put out an early Weekly Infomovie Report on Wednesday morning, saying of the (for practical purposes identical to gold) SPDR Gold Trust ETF /quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld (GLD 137.71, -2.21, -1.58%) chart: “The break-out is likely to be a valid one. That’s important because these consolidation formations are typically followed by price moves far in excess of that suggested by their size.”
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